Increased mesothelioma incidence in New Zealand: the asbestos-cancer epidemic has started.

AIMS To examine the incidence and mortality patterns for malignant mesothelioma and pleural cancer in New Zealand between 1962-1996, and relate these to past use of asbestos. METHODS Data concerning cases of mesothelioma 1962-1996, deaths from pleural and lung cancers 1974-1996, and data on imports of raw asbestos and asbestos products were obtained from government registers and publications. Time trends were analysed using different models. RESULTS Mesothelioma incidence rates have increased progressively in New Zealand since the 1960s, and reached 25 per million for men in 1995. The increase follows an exponential model departing from a crude 'background rate' of 1-2 per million in 1984, and is particularly steep in males 50 to 60 years of age. The incidence is expected to double by 2010. CONCLUSION New Zealand has entered an unrivalled period of occupational cancer deaths resulting from past workplace exposure to airborne asbestos fibres. The steep rise in mesothelioma incidence is likely to be accompanied by increases in other asbestos related diseases such as lung cancer. The unique causal association between mesothelioma and asbestos may be used to monitor changes in the public health impact of these exposures. The notification by medical practitioners of all potential asbestos related conditions/exposures to the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) service is of great importance.